Telecom operators are likely to realise massive slumps on revenues when Voice over IP (VoIP) becomes massified, while wireless communications will continue to thrive in a Wi-Fi / UMTS based environment. These are the predictions of João Schwarz da Silva who, in an interview to Europe Contact Center, also explains the initiatives being taken by the European Commission for the wireless industry. Mr. Da Silva joined the European Commission in 1991 and now manages the mobile and personal communications area for the European Community Research and Development Programmes. He received a PhD on the Performance Analysis of Mobile Packet Radio Systems from Carleton University, Ottawa.
ECC Which are the noticeable trends in the horizon for wireless communications and services?
João Schwarz da Silva In pure technological terms we will see the transition from the existing mobile networks (GSM / GPRS) to the UMTS, which is already a reality in some European countries. We will also assist to the blossoming of the Wireless LANs and Wi-Fi technology (by now 802.11b and in the future 802.11a, 802.11g).
In the next two or three years we are likely to testify the integration of disparate networks carried out by operators, whose scope covers both fixed and mobile business areas. This need for seamless network integration will rally together an array of fragmented partners because the end-user will not want to deal with multiple providers to get a single service.
This will imply a redefinition of the value-chain. Nowadays, the number of partners within the value-chain is too small but in the next years we will see an array of market agents offering value-added services, be it in terms of interoperability or security, for instance.
ECC Which are the main EU initiatives being currently carried out to foster wireless communications?
JSS The European Commissions initiatives are funnelled through the Commissions Communications initiatives. We recently launched a communication on interoperability and another one on the eEurope 2005 programme. In financial terms, we provide structural funds aimed at supporting member states local or national initiatives as long as they have a strategy to apply that money. These funds can be used to develop disfavoured areas or to iron market discrepancies. The only proviso is that competition rules are not disregarded.
On the other hand, we also support a series of R&D initiatives whose goal is to attain, within 5 or 10 years, a knowledge-base which will allow the development of European companies, scientists and labs able to compete at a worldwide scale. It is very important that EU has its own means to secure its technological independence.
ECC Do you think it is possible to compete with the States?
JSS The USA have a lot of powerful initiatives to support the industry and universities. For the time being, we are quite lagged behind but there is a strong investment in Europe to allow up to 3 per cent of the member states GNP to be invested in R&D.
ECC Which was the legacy of the economic downturn for the wireless industry?
JSS Since 3G norms were adopted, the work yet to be done by member states consisted on licensing. Nevertheless, as by then we were still under the “bubble” effect, member states decided to charge hefty sums. Some 120 bn euros were invested in licensing, which caused operators to bridle further investments, namely on infrastructure and services.
The second consequence was a drastic cutback on R&D, leading to the collapse of several labs throughout Europe. Nevertheless we expect a slow and, who knows, more mature upturn by the end of the first semester 2004.
ECC Which will be the leading standards for wireless communications in the future ?
JSS For the 3G, the European Commissions bet on UMTS is reaping incontestable results, as 85 per cent of the licenses issued worldwide will be based on this technology. This means that in the near future, the end-user can commute within almost the entire globe without having to face interoperability issues.
In the wireless networks domains, Wi-Fi seems to be developing quickly 50 million people use this technology worldwide although at a slower pace than cellular networks, which are used by 1 billion people. It is very likely that Wi-Fi will boom in the next years, but only by 2015 will it be able to compete with cellular networks.
ECC But in the services arena, theres still a lot to be done on how are contents going to be charged
JSS The European Commission is studying micro-payment technologies. This means that users could have something like a credit card to pay for those services, whose price could represent a millesimal of an euro. For example, there should be such a system which would allow me to consult the front-page of an online newspaper paying something like a fraction of a cent. Obviously, for a portal with 200,000 daily visits, this would be an excellent business case.
ECC Which will be the killer-applications and devices to the wireless communications?
JSS I dont agree with the concept of “killer-applications”. From time to time there comes up an application which becomes mainstream, say like Napster or Kazaa. These were not conceived by an operator but are rather users one-off initiatives. Voice over IP, though, will be a very important service in the future. Today there are companies offering IP calls as cheap as 6 cents per minute. The technology is fully available although the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 is essential.
In terms of equipments, I guess what we have today and in the future is hybrid terminals able to broadcast voice, data, image and video. Nowadays, photographic machines are selling better through mobile phones than as isolated equipment, and the same is likely to happen with camcorders in the future.
ECC How can the catch-22 of security v. privacy be managed in a broadband wireless scenario?
JSS In the same way it is not possible to drive in a motorway without a driving licence, it is far obvious that no one should be entitled to access an information highway without being identified. Otherwise we will have a situation when a group of people will unduly abuse the system. This rationale being observed, national authorities should then safeguard citizens privacy by assuring that those data wont be conveyed to unauthorised third-parties.
Filipe Samora
2004-01-27
Em Foco – Pessoa